Real Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund
Real Madrid -1.5 Spread (Real Madrid need to win by 2 or more goals) at +130 20*
As Real Madrid prepare to face Borussia Dortmund, there’s been a lot of chatter around Kylian Mbappe's performance. The French star hasn't quite delivered the explosive impact many expected, but it’s time to take a step back and reassess the situation. Real Madrid, the reigning Spanish champions, deserve far more respect than they’re being given.
Despite some early season concerns, their home form remains exceptional. Los Blancos have won all their matches at the Bernabéu this season, averaging 2.83 goals per 90 minutes—a number that speaks volumes about their attacking prowess. This isn’t just a lucky streak either. In 13 of their last 14 home games across all competitions, they've netted at least two goals. The only exception? A meaningless 0-0 draw with Real Betis at the end of last season when nothing was on the line.
So, while the spotlight remains on Mbappe, Madrid’s collective strength, especially at home, shouldn’t be underestimated.
Dortmund’s Defensive Luck is About to Run Out
Now, let’s talk about Borussia Dortmund. Over the last 12 months, their defense has been riding a wave of luck, and that culminated in an unexpected run to last season’s Champions League final. On the surface, their away record looks impressive—just 0.67 goals conceded per 90 minutes during that period. But when we dig deeper, the cracks start to show.
Their underlying xGA (expected goals against) tells a different story, revealing a far more vulnerable defense with 2.07 goals allowed. This suggests they’ve been fortunate, and this season, we’re likely to see that luck run out.
Already under new coach Nuri Sahin, Dortmund have looked weaker defensively. Domestically, they’re allowing 1.71 goals per game, which is concerning given they haven’t faced many tough teams yet.
The one strong opponent they’ve faced in the Bundesliga, Stuttgart, made quick work of them with a 5-1 thrashing. If Dortmund’s defense couldn’t hold up against Stuttgart, what will happen when they face the firepower of Real Madrid?
Real Madrid’s Moment to Silence the Critics
This is the perfect spot for Real Madrid to make a statement and pile on the misery for a Dortmund side that’s showing cracks in their armor. While Dortmund’s defense is struggling to find its footing, Real Madrid’s attack, combined with their fortress-like home advantage, is primed to exploit these weaknesses.
So, can Dortmund defy the odds once again? Or are we about to witness a defensive collapse as Real Madrid flex their muscles? I believe Los Blancos will seize this opportunity to silence their critics.
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Ylose Soccer expert Neil Mac has been delivering profits month on month with his European Soccer expertise.. Follow all his plays from the Premier League, Bundesliga, La Liga, Ligue 1 Serie A, Champions League, Europa League and Internationals with his weekly package below