Texans vs Chiefs Free Pick, NFL Free Picks, NFL Predictions 12/21/24

Houston vs Kansas City (KC -3.5 , 42.5)

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Texans vs Chiefs Free Pick, NFL Free Picks, NFL Predictions 12/21/24

Houston vs. Kansas City | Saturday, December 21, 2024

The Kansas City Chiefs appear to have escaped a rather crucial injury this past weekend with Patrick Mahomes going down awkwardly in the game against Cleveland. He limped off the field and never returned, with the team then announcing it was a high ankle sprain, but no further damage.

Mahomes has since been a full participant in practice this week, and is now expected to feature on Saturday against CJ Stroud and the Houston Texans.

The Chiefs have the number one seed in the AFC to protect, and any kind of slip up in their three remaining games might open the door for the Buffalo Bills to steal it from them. That all important first round bye for whoever sits at the top is certainly worth playing for, and Kansas City currently find themselves two games in front of Buffalo with three left to play.

Still, despite their 13-1 record, this Chiefs team doesn’t feel anywhere near as dominant as it has done in years past. In their last three games they’ve failed to score more than 21 points, with two of those games coming against the Raiders and Browns, two of the NFL’s worst performing teams this season.

On the season Mahomes and co. are 12th in points per game (23.5) and 14th in yards per game (336.9), but they’re also 26th in redzone scoring (50.91%), and 24th in yards per play.

Fortunately the defense has shown up in a major way this season, helping the Chiefs stay on the straight and narrow and out in front in the conference. They’re 5th in points allowed per game (18.5), and yards per game (306.9), as well as being one of the league's top five teams against the run.

That matchup is intriguing against Houston who have leant on their run game consistently this season amidst some struggles passing the football down the field. Nico Collins was out a while, Stefon Diggs was sidelined for the rest of the season weeks ago, and Tank Dell has had a relatively quiet sophomore season after a very productive rookie year.

Fortunately for Houston the acquisition of Joe Mixon in the backfield turned out to be one of the best deals that was made during the offseason. Yet still, Houston ranks right in the middle of the pack on the year across the offense. 13th in points per game (23.4), 19th in yards per game (324.2), and if the Kansas City Chiefs slow their run game down as they have with many other teams this season, it could all land on CJ Stroud.

It’s been a strange year for Stroud, and by the eye test you would say a little regression from his rookie year. But the Texans are still 9-5, Stroud is still completing 63.6% of his passes, they’re just a little less explosive than they were.

Still, this clash between two playoff bound franchises in the AFC will be a very technical bout, with plenty still to play for.

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Texans -2.5