Minnesota Vikings vs Houston Texans (HOU -2, 46)
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Minnesota vs Houston
Sam Darnold has been one of the biggest surprises of the 2024 NFL season so far, emerging as the starter for the Vikings, and leading the team to an impressive 2-0 start. The Week 1 win over the New York Giants was written off, given the woeful performance from Daniel Jones and the offense, but Week 2 taught us the Vikings are serious, and that their first win was no fluke. 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy applauded Brian Flores’ defense after they were beaten by Minnesota, noting that his scheme ‘is crazy’. Flores has long been an impressive defensive mind in the NFL, and appears to have found a great place to settle alongside Kevin O’Connell.
O’Connell himself has worked wonders in the NFL with several quarterbacks now, Sam Darnold being the latest. The Vikings are #2 in offensive yards per play, while scoring 25.5 points per game, despite their second of two opponents being the dominant 49ers.
Darnold is averaging 9.2 yards per pass, also good for second in the league, and they’re completing on 72% of their passing plays so far. That said, their offense is a little banged up, with Justin Jefferson coming out of the 49ers game following a third quarter leg injury. His status for Sunday is up in the air, and Jordan Addison was already out with an injury in the Vikings second outing.
The Houston Texans are also 2-0, with one of the best offensive connections in football right now. Nico Collins leads the league in receiving yards through two games, posting back to back 100+ yard performances, and a total of 252 yards and a touchdown through two games.
CJ Stroud’s offense has been good, but not quite found the consistency yet in 2024. Tank Dell has been quiet, and the offense is converting on just 54% of its pass plays so far, compared to 2023’s 63%. They are however top 10 in offensive yards per game (363), and 11th in points per game (24).
Analysts expected things would be a little tougher on the Texans this season, now that everyone has studied CJ Stroud’s rookie campaign, but you have to imagine they are only going to improve over time, and CJ is still making multiple crazy plays per game slinging the football.
That said, the Texans scraped past the Chicago Bears, who have struggled badly with offensive efficiency under the command of rookie quarterback Caleb Williams. That is going to take some time over there in Chicago, and the Texans have to be a little disappointed that they were unable to pull away.
Houston is yet to cover the spread, with a push against Chicago and a loss against the 3 point spread with the 29-27 win over Indianapolis in Week 1. And yet they are a 1.5 point favorite on the road here against a Minnesota Vikings team that just beat the San Francisco 49ers.
The Vikings are 2-0 against the spread, have cashed two unders and could be a favorable bet again here in Week 3. All eyes on Justin Jefferson and his status ahead of the game…
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